BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
ARGO
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
People sometimes think of the Best Screenplay categories as the film with the best dialogue; that's actually about half of it. Maybe even a little more of it when comes to the 'adapted' screenplays, being screenplays based on previously existing written sources, such as a film version of a novel, i.e. LIFE OF PI and SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK and specifically credited as being based "in part" on a non-fiction book, LINCOLN, or sometimes an article, a previous screenplay in the case of a remake, and really any number of media forms, as another huge part of a great script is, of course, the story and its structure. SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK has a strong "screwball comedy" style that plays well, LIFE OF PI's screenplay was the first step to bringing the "unfilmable" story to the screen and BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD, based on a one-act play called Sweet and Juicy, has an incredible script it seems, but there's a strong possibility of onset set improvisation and intense editing that make me skeptical about how direct the script-to-film relation is. If it's close, then it would deserve the win, but it's also so unconventional that it probably will alienate a good portion of the Academy.
The frontrunners for Best Adapted Screenplay are LINCOLN and ARGO. LINCOLN is a political thriller, so not an easy thing to structure, and furthermore, is set in the 1860's. Written by Tony Kushner, who also wrote Spielberg's LINCOLN, it utilizes sweepingly lyrical and poetic language, but to it's slight detriment, there are a few corny bits, however, those bits do play better when read directly from the script, as opposed to how they play in the film. ARGO is written by Chris Terrio and is a fairly rapid-fire, intense thriller with snappy dialogue exchanges. I'm personally more fond of this kind of script, and ARGO weaves through many tones and emotional environments with ease as well. My pick here is ARGO, but by a slim margin and consideration to my own personal preferences.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
AMOUR
DJANGO UNCHAINED
FLIGHT
MOONRISE KINGDOM
ZERO DARK THIRTY
The Best Original Screenplay does not necessarily indicate an original story, for example, ZERO DARK THIRTY, which depicts the true-life events in the hunt for Osama bin Laden, but as was the case there, the original screenplay does not use a previously published form of written media as a direct source. Again, I have not yet seen AMOUR as of this writing, but the rest are strong candidates. To the chagrin of many, I'm sure, I think I'd rank MOONRISE KINGDOM as lowest of the bunch because, amusing as it was, I thought it was the typical Wes Anderson-y whimsy he churns out, and I've seen better examples of that (see THE ROYAL TENANBAUMS.), and DJANGO UNCHAINED is great and chock-filled with witticisms, dark humor, and intelligent prose much like every other script by Quentin Tarantino but in a western setting and is very much a good script, but considering that Tarantino just won the award with his last film, INGLORIOUS BASTERDS in 2009, he probably won't win this round. I think my favorites for this one are FLIGHT, written by John Gatins, whose sketchy hard-knock drama tendencies finally bloomed into something great and possibly a fluke, and ZERO DARK THIRTY, written by Mark Boal, who won for his previous screenplay, THE HURT LOCKER. My favorite for the win is ZERO DARK THIRTY, for its balls-to-the-wall attitude and impressive ability to squeeze an insane amount of information into a palatable two and a half hours.
BEST DIRECTOR:
MICHAEL HANEKE for AMOUR
BENH ZEITLIN for BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
ANG LEE for LIFE OF PI
STEVEN SPIELBERG for LINCOLN
DAVID O. RUSSELL for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Best Director is the soul brother (and one-time soul sister) to the award for Best Picture. They are hand in hand awards and are almost always the easiest to bet on because the winner for Best Picture is usually the winner of Best Director as well, being that the popular (though probably generalizing) auteur theory states that the director of a film is the defining force behind it, and for the most part he/she is. He's/she's there instructing the film, he/she approves the various cuts and elements, and basically chaperones, provides input to and approves the results of nearly everyone working on the film. Finally, in accordance with studio negotiations, the director decides on the final product. Every once in a while, the Best Picture and Best Director awards go to separate films, and though it's unusual, it's not usually a big surprise, the most recent being in 2005 when CRASH won Best Picture in an upset, while the frontrunner, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, retained Ang Lee's second of two Best Director awards, the first of which, for CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON, was without a Best Picture win as well. Yet again, Lee is up for Best Director, this time for LIFE OF PI, which is unlikely to win Best Picture and could be a third win for Lee without a Best Picture.
This year, the Best Director race, and with it, Best Picture, has seen an incredible shakeup after ARGO slipped into a frontrunner status despite a currently infamous snub where Ben Affleck failed to garner a nomination for Best Director. If, or perhaps when, ARGO wins Best Picture as expected, it will only be third film in history to do so without a Best Director nomination, most recently being DRIVING MISS DAISY in 1989 with Best Director going to Oliver Stone (his second win) for BORN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY, and before that was the first Best Picture winner (then, Outstanding Picture), WINGS, but under significantly different rules and organization. With the Best Picture frontrunner missing from the Best Director category, the win is wide open for speculation. Even still, certain elements are predictable; Michael Haneke, nominated for AMOUR is an unlikely win, mainly due to his limited appeal arthouse style, and previously-nominated David O. Russell isn't considered very likable, not enough to score this year anyway. Benh Zeitlin's nomination is mostly for show alongside other nominations, strictly as nominations, for BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD; a brilliant film, but too bold for the current Academy. Haneke, Russell or Zeitlin all could have been interchangeable for the snubbed Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow for ZERO DARK THIRTY.
Spielberg is the frontrunner for this award, with Lee as a possible second. Spielberg's LINCOLN was great, but this award, as opposed to his two previous wins for masterpieces SCHINDLER'S LIST (1993) and SAVING PRIVATE RYAN (1998), wouldn't so specifically be for this particular work, but largely because it's an opportunity to recognize Spielberg, the biggest Hollywood legend working today, and hell, I'm always for awarding Spielberg, but if I had my way, LIFE OF PI would win Best Picture and Lee, accordingly for Best Director. But my bet to win, is Spielberg.
AND FINALLY, IN SUMMATION:
BEST PICTURE:
Will win: ARGO /2nd (my safety): LINCOLN /Should win: LIFE OF PI /Should received a damn courtesy nomination: MARVEL'S THE AVENGERS
BEST DIRECTOR:
Will win: Steven Spielberg for LINCOLN /2nd: Ang Lee for LIFE OF PI /Should win: Kathryn Bigelow (not nominated) for ZERO DARK THIRTY
BEST ACTOR:
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN /2nd: Don't really need one here /Should win: See "Will win"
BEST ACTRESS:
Will win: Jessica Chastain, ZERO DARK THIRTY /2nd: Jennifer Lawrence, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK /Should win: Jessica Chastain
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones, LINCOLN /2nd: Robert DeNiro, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK /Should win: Tommy Lee Jones
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will win: Anne Hathaway, LES MISERABLES /2nd: Don't really think I need one /Should win: Anne Hathaway
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Will win: ZERO DARK THIRTY /2nd: MOONRISE KINGDOM /Should win: ZERO DARK THIRTY
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Will win: LINCOLN /2nd: SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK /Should win: Probably LINCOLN
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Will win: WRECK-IT RALPH /2nd: PARANORMAN /Should win: PARANORMAN
BEST FOREIGN FILM:
Will win: AMOUR /2nd: N/A /Should win: Don't know. Didn't see any of them.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will win: SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN /2nd: N/A / Should win: Don't know. Didn't see any of them.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Nobody gives a f-ck.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
Again, nobody give a f-ck.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
Will win: PAPERMAN /2nd: FRESH GUACAMOLE / Should win: PAPERMAN
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Will win: LINCOLN /2nd: ARGO /Should win: LIFE OF PI
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Will win: Skyfall from SKYFALL /2nd: Suddenly from LES MISERABLES /Should win: Skyfall, I guess
These categories aren't as important so I'll half-ass them.
BEST SOUND EDITING:
Will Win: SKYFALL /Should win: Why not SKYFALL?
BEST SOUND MIXING:
Will and should win: LES MISERABLES
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Will win: ANNA KARENINA /2nd: LIFE OF PI
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Will win: LES MISERABLES
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Will win: LINCOLN /2nd: LES MISERABLES
BEST FILM EDITING:
Will win: ARGO /2nd: ZERO DARK THIRTY /Should win: ZERO DARK THIRTY
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Will win: LIFE OF PI /Should win: LIFE OF PI
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