I'll cover everything in this article, but unlike most, I'm not going to be coy; let's start with the real goods-
BEST PICTURE:
AMOUR
ARGO
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LES MISERABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY
The award for Best Picture is widely considered the big one; it goes to what the Academy voters have deemed the greatest movie of the year. The problem with that though is that all movies are subjective and as when judged by their own merits, there can rarely be justified comparison between great movies. So the Best Picture at the Oscars is not necessarily the greatest movie of the year. It is the opinion of the Academy voters as a whole, but even then, it's rarely an actual, honest opinion, because there is a hell of a lot of Hollywood politics involved.
ARGO is expected to win, mainly as a result of Ben Affleck being snubbed as Best Director. See, usually the nominations for the Director's Guild of America (DGA) are announced prior to the Oscar nominations, and the Academy voters, each nominating within their own category, i.e., film directors nominate for Best Director, usually use earlier nominations as a sort of guidebook of suggestion. This year, the dates were switched, and somehow, despite even all the other hype, Affleck failed to garner a nomination. Now, as Affleck has picked up Best Director wins in just about every other pre-Oscars awards, the Academy, which votes which nominees to win as a whole as opposed to the sectioned nominating process, will likely favor ARGO, partly as a consolation. In addition, ARGO has won the Best Picture-equivalents at almost every other awards ceremony so far, and it makes Hollywood a hero, albeit while roasting them too, and Hollywood is justifiably famous for vanity. I don't think they're more vain than really anybody else (hello, politicians!), but they don't invite enough conflict to distract from the fact.
If ARGO wins, it will be the first time a film has won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination since DRIVING MISS DAISY in 1989, and only the third time since the inaugural Oscars in 1929 where WINGS won what was then Outstanding Picture with a director's nomination, but under a vastly different system. As such, if it won it would be 3 out of 85! Best Picture and Best Director just go hand in hand. It's unusual but not shocking for a Best Picture and Best Director to go to two different films, the last time being 2005 when CRASH got Picture (inexplicably) and Ang Lee got Director for BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN. Anyway, ARGO is expected to win Best Picture, but in regards to the others:
AMOUR is the probably the least seen of the Best Picture nominees, and I am among those who haven't seen it, so I don't really have anything to say about it. Even still, because I just have to have an opinion about everything, I will say that it is an art film, and I have nothing particular against those, but it did win the Palme de'Or at the Cannes Film Festival last year, and those are often pretty sketchy in my opinion.
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD is very unlikely to win, but it's wonderful to see it nominated. It's a low budget indie and an art house flick, but it was definitely one of the best films of last year, so if it won, it would deserve it, but this one's the sort of nominee that is awarded by being a nominee.
DJANGO UNCHAINED has little chance of winning either, but likewise, it deserves the recognition. It's too bold and controversial for the Academy tastes though. They like to nominate Tarantino films, and sometimes even nominate Tarantino, but they never give it to him.
LES MISERABLES was a pre-nominations favorite before its release. The Academy loves musical spectaculars; they gave Best Picture to the not-so-deserving CHICAGO in 2002, probably just for the sake of awarding a genre that's become at bit rare in adult-aimed films. For Oscar, a musical doesn't really have to be great, good will be good enough. On top of that, LES MISERABLES was Tom Hooper's first film after winning the Academy Awards for Best Picture and Best Director for THE KING'S SPEECH in 2010 (an all too common case of the voters picking a nice and safe choice over the bold and once-in-a-generation excellence of THE SOCIAL NETWORK), with an all-star cast, not to mention the stage musical's status as one of the most popular musicals of all time, but then people actually saw the film. It's a very good film, and for many viewers, a great one, but against the competition, it just wasn't what we were hoping for. The nomination is justified, but a win would not be.
LIFE OF PI is my definite favorite of the bunch. I freaking loved this movie, and in the unlikely case of a very surprising upset, it could win. It would still be among the nominees with the pre-2009 system that was limited to 5 nominees, but the current Academy is pretty iffy about religion, and that's exactly what LIFE OF PI is about. Ang Lee is an undisputed great director, but he's yet to win a Best Picture.
LINCOLN was the immediate post-nominations favorite, and is still the main competition for frontrunner ARGO. Two rules predict a Best Picture winner, the first being that the winner of major pre-Oscars awards such as the Golden Globes, the British Academy, the Critics' Choice and assorted Hollywood workers' guilds will win Best Picture, and the points to ARGO. The second rule is that the film with the most nominations overall will win Best Picture, and that distinction belongs to LINCOLN with 12, ARGO being in fifth behind LIFE OF PI, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK and LES MISERABLES with a regardlessly respectable 7. So LINCOLN can and might win, but ARGO built strong momentum, so if it did, it would be a mild surprise.
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK is a really, really good movie and caters to Academy tastes, so I wasn't at all surprised by its nomination, but I am surprised by the status it's earned as a favorite, because as much as I enjoyed it, I've held it slightly lower in regard than most of the other Best Picture nominees. Just goes to show that you should never underestimate the power of Harvey Weinstein, the incomparable master of Oscar schmoozing. It probably won't win the big one, but it's definitely one to watch in other major categories, especially considering that it received nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress, a feat unmatched since 1981's REDS, which lost Best Picture.
ZERO DARK THIRTY has been woefully, undeserving of its heavy misfortune, which is largely rooted in the idiotic "torture controversy", regarding the film's graphic depictions of torture and accusations of a pro-torture stance. Firstly, the pro-torture claims are an epic load of shit that has been perpetuated by typically smart people with good intentions. ZERO DARK THIRTY is another first film following Oscar gold, directed by Kathryn Bigelow, who won Best Picture and Director for THE HURT LOCKER in 2009, but her newest exceeds anything else she's done, and while ZERO DARK THIRTY has little chance of winning, it will probably earn justification in history and prove to be a greatly enduring and important film.
IN ORDER, #1 BEING MY TOP PICK, MY PERSONAL FAVORITES OF THE BEST PICTURE NOMINEES AT THE 85TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
1. LIFE OF PI
2. BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
3. ZERO DARK THIRTY
4. ARGO
5. DJANGO UNCHAINED
6. LINCOLN
7. LES MISERABLES
8. SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
EXEMPT: AMOUR
MY PREDICTIONS TO WIN BEST PICTURE AT THE 85TH ACADEMY AWARDS, #1 BEING THE MOST LIKELY:
1. ARGO
2. LINCOLN
3. SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
4. LIFE OF PI
5. AMOUR
6. ZERO DARK THIRTY
7. BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
8. LES MISERABLES
9. DJANGO UNCHAINED
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