Who Cares About the 88th Academy Awards?

I don't have the confidence to put real money behind my Oscar bets, but here are my predictions just the same.

BEST PICTURE
In alphabetical order:
THE BIG SHORT  (COMEDY/DRAMA) 
Directed by Adam McKay
Starring: Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling, Brad Pitt, John Magaro, Finn Wittrock, Hamish Linklater, Rafe Spall, Jeremy Strong, Marisa Tomei, Melissa Leo, Stanley Wong
Rated R for pervasive language and some sexuality/nudity.
130 minutes
My Rating: 3.5 out of 4 
A dark comedy about the inner workings of the 2008 financial crisis from the writer-director of great dumb comedies like ANCHORMAN: THE LEGEND OF RON BURGUNDY and STEP BROTHERS, THE BIG SHORT isn't as funny as some of Adam McKay's previous work, but it's fair to say it's important.  McKay previously tried to address these issues in a more direct and fictional comedy, THE OTHER GUYS, with weird results (after all the goofball antics, the credits were stuffed to the brim with serious-as-the-plague animated infographics on Wall Street's shady practices and the Great Recession); here, he's much more successful at saying what's clearly been eating at him for a while now, and when all is said and done, you'll feel it too.  Based on the math-heavy non-fiction book The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, the movie follows four different threads beginning in 2005 when autistic, heavy metal-loving hedge fund manager Michael Burry (Christian Bale) discovers the U.S. housing market has been propped up by bad high risk loans that will cause the market to collapse within a couple of years, and in the face of denial, Burry decides to bet against the market.  Meanwhile, Jared Vennett (Ryan Gosling), a sleazy bond salesman, catches wind of all the "crazy" deals this Burry guy is making against the housing market, and realizes he may be onto something, so Vennett starts putting together his own stakes against the housing market.  A misplaced phone call lets highly skeptical hedge funds manager Mark Baum (Steve Carell) in on Vennett's schemes, and Baum puts his office to work investigating the truth of the market's stability, and finally, two young upstarts, Charlie Geller (John Magaro) and Jamie Shipley (Finn Wittrock) hear about it, and with the help of their mentor, retired banker Ben Rickert (Brad Pitt), they set up their own stakes. 
The movie is essentially a civil service, but an impressive use of the medium to inform people in the most accessible way possible how the impossible happened, and how it can happen again.  It's often funny, but the gut punches hit harder than the gut-busters as the film does just what it sets out to do.  McKay's approach to the deliberately over-complicated nature of housing loans and the business of the big banks is smart and funny, breaking the fourth wall to allow a celebrity like Margo Robbie or Anthony Bourdain to explain terms like "subprime loan" and "collateralized debt obligations" (CDOs) with humorous sight gags or one-liners.  Most importantly, it's a powerful reminder that behind all the financial gobbledygook and statistics, there are faces to the people behind the big, mysterious Wall Street machine, and there are faces to the people affected by their actions.

BRIDGE OF SPIES  (DRAMA) 
Directed by Steven Spielberg
Starring: Tom Hanks, Mark Rylance, Scott Shepherd, Amy Ryan, Sebastian Koch, Alan Alda, Austin Stowell, Billy Magnussen, Eve Hewson, Jesse Plemons, Michael Gaston, Peter McRobbie
Rated PG-13 for some violence and brief strong language.
141 minutes
My Rating: 3.5 out of 4
BRIDGE OF SPIES is your average "serious film" from master filmmaker Steven Spielberg, and that's not a bad thing.  An old-fashioned Cold War drama that might have been several years late to comment on some of the more dubious aspects of the War on Terror but is now right on time to respond to some of the more outrageous statements made in the Republican presidential race, BRIDGE OF SPIES offers a square argument for the importance of American values in the face of adveristy.  Tom Hanks stars as lawyer James Donovan, a Jimmy Stewart type in 1957 who is called upon to provide legal defense to an accused Soviet spy (Mark Rylance), necessary to show to the world that the system of American justice works, but Donovan soon realizes that his superiors are only interested in keeping up appearances and are miffed when he starts arguing for his client's rights under the Constitution.  When an American spy plane is shot down over the Soviet Union though, the U.S. government calls on him to negotiate the American pilot's release.
It's a pristine, square film with high ideals and solid performances all around, eloquent and handsome, if a bit overlong.

BROOKLYN  (ROMANCE/DRAMA) 
Directed by John Crowley
Starring: Saoirse Ronan, Emory Cohen, Domhnall Gleeson, Jim Broadbent, Julie Walters, Emily Bett Rickards, Brid Brennan, Jane Brennan, Fiona Glascott, Jessica Pare
Rated PG-13 for a scene of sexuality and brief strong language.
111 minutes
My Rating: N/A
I still haven't seen it.

MAD MAX: FURY ROAD  (ACTION) 
Directed by George Miller
Starring: Tom Hardy, Charlize Theron, Nicholas Hoult, Hugh Keays-Byrne, Rosie Huntington-Whiteley, Riley Keough, Zoe Kravitz, Abbey Lee, Courtney Eaton, Josh Helman, Nathan Jones
Rated R for intense sequences of violence throughout, and for disturbing images.
120 minutes
My Rating: 4 out of 4
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD, another "legacyquel", a belated sequel/reboot to a dormant franchise, in this case the Mad Max/Road Warrior series, is everything a genuinely great action movie should be.  It is insane in the best way, a balls-out mad chase that runs for a tight two hours that are filled to the brim with wildly exciting, kinetic action, colorful and interesting characters, and just enough thematic heft to matter, but not so much that it becomes bogged down in self-importance or distracts from the main thrills.  It's not exactly usual Oscar material, but how badass would that be if the presenter read off, "The winner of the Academy Award for Best Picture is MAD MAX: FURY ROAD!", and then revving engines sound and George Miller drives up on-stage in a Pursuit Special (or atop the Doof Wagon if it'll fit in the Dolby Theatre).  It's no typical summer blockbuster, and it's no typical art movie, but it has a foot in each arena.  The result is a highly unique, deliriously fun , and ultimately even moving action movie masterpiece from George Miller, a 70-year-old director who's now better than he's ever been.

THE MARTIAN  (SCI-FI/COMEDY) 
Directed by Ridley Scott
Starring: Matt Damon, Jessica Chastain, Michael Pena, Kate Mara, Sebastian Stan, Aksel Hennie, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Mackenzie Davis, Sean Bean, Jeff Daniels, Donald Glover
Rated PG-13 for some strong language, injury images, and brief nudity.
144 minutes
My Rating: 3 out of 4
The crowd-pleasing favorite of the year, Ridley Scott's THE MARTIAN, adapted with an abundance of snark by Drew Goddard from the novel by Andy Weir, is a solid albeit not terribly remarkable continuation of the series of "serious sci-fi" astronaut films of late (GRAVITY and INTERSTELLAR highlighting the past couple of years).  Starring Matt Damon as Mark Watney, a NASA astronaut in the year 2035, thought dead and marooned on the planet Mars, it follows the high-stakes dual efforts of Watney to survive the inhospitable environment and of his long-gone crew and scientists at NASA to mount a nearly impossible rescue mission, all in heavily wit-laden fashion.  As Watney himself notes, "I'm going to have to science the shit out of this."
A major issue of THE MARTIAN is its length (an increasingly frequent problem lately), which could easily afford to and benefit greatly by trimming at least 20 minutes, and its plentiful wit occasionally smacks of facetiousness, but it's a good, solid adventure.  Is it Best Picture material though?  No.

THE REVENANT  (WESTERN/ADVENTURE-DRAMA) 
Directed by Alejandro G. Inarritu
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Tom Hardy, Domhnall Gleeson, Will Poulter, Forrest Goodluck, Grace Dove, Paul Anderson, Brendan Fletcher, Melaw Nakhek'o, Duane Howard
Rated R for strong frontier combat and violence including gory images, a sexual assault, language and brief nudity.
156 minutes
My Rating: 2 out 4
The follow-up of last year's winner, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (who won Best Picture and Best Director last year for BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE)), THE REVENANT is the weakest of this years nominees, and is yet a paradox of a film, being both tremendously robust and awe-inspiring at times, but also middling and dull.  It would likely have benefited greatly in hands less pretentious than those of Inarritu.  The word 'revenant' refers to a folkloric being returned from the grave to torment the living, from the Latin reveniens meaning "returning", in this story meaning Hugh Glass, a frontiersman who survived a vicious bear mauling to travel hundreds of miles on foot to find the men who buried him alive and left him for dead.  The astonishing historical story is loosely adapted here as a starring vehicle for Leonardo DiCaprio as Glass, but Inarritu's handling of Glass' tribulations is surprisingly dull and resembles a Passion play in which a blandly generic figure is ruthlessly, inexplicably visited upon by torturous injuries, which he suffers mindlessly and in this case, without the benefit of religious significance.  In spite of his full-bodied effort, Leo never feels physically true to the role of an 18th-century frontiersman, and the character itself is never endowed with personality, making his journey practically meaningless.  The final act is disconnected from the film before and even has an air of ridiculousness to it (18th-century trackers who can't find a man's trail in the snow?), culminating in a very bloody but pointless confrontation that puts a awkward cap on Inarritu's dreadfully clumsy approach toward the plight of indigenous Americans at the time that falls into "noble savage" territory.  On the other hand, it's a hell of a production with genuinely stunning action (the opening battle scene had me squeezing the armrests of my chair like few movies can), sumptuous natural scenery captured in picture postcard form by cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki's lens, and while Leo is getting all the attention, the really impressive performance of the movie is from Tom Hardy as its primary antagonist, John Fitzgerald, whose character is both scenery-chewing fun and earnest, self-serving menace.

ROOM  (DRAMA) 
Directed by Lenny Abrahamson
Starring: Brie Larson, Jacob Tremblay, Joan Allen, William H. Macy, Sean Bridgers, Tom McCamus, Amanda Brugel, Joe Pingue, Megan Park, Cas Anvar, Wendy Crewson
Rated R for language.
118 minutes
My Rating: N/A
I still haven't seen it.

SPOTLIGHT  (DRAMA) 
Directed by Tom McCarthy
Starring: Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Rachel McAdams, Liev Schreiber, John Slattery, Stanley Tucci, Brian D'Arcy James, Billy Crudup, Len Cariou
Rated R for some language including sexual references.
128 minutes
My Rating: 4 out of 4
An exemplary Oscar-friendly drama, SPOTLIGHT is an ALL THE PRESIDENT'S MEN-style story of fact-based investigative journalism recounting The Boston Globe's Spotlight team's efforts to uncover an epidemic of child sex abuse by Catholic priests in Boston, Massachusetts and the systematic cover-up by the institution of the church itself.  Tasked with long-term researching for investigative feature articles, the team is headed by Robby Robinson (Michael Keaton), along with Michael Rezendes (Mark Ruffalo), and Sacha Pfeiffer (Rachel McAdams), when the paper hires a new editor, Marty Baron (Liev Schreiber), a Jewish outsider from Florida who urges them to take on the story of the church's protecting abusive priests from legal consequences.  The local reporters however are forced to come to terms with their faith and personal relationships in the city where the shadow of the Catholic Church looms over everything and everyone, and they are forced to weigh the value of all the good the institution does and how their uncovering may affect that good against the increasingly pervasive corruption that they find.
It's an incredibly multi-faceted, thoroughly thoughtful portrayal of a very difficult and very important story that writer/director Tom McCarthy gets positively spot on, with an excellent cast all around.  It's an ordinary prestige picture done extraordinarily, one that hits the perfect notes in all the details, telling a story with intimacy and scope with surgical precision.

Who Will Win: SPOTLIGHT.  This year is a very close race, indicated by the three-way split between awards already issued by the Producers Guild of America (PGA), the Screen Actors of America (SAG), and the Directors Guild of America (DGA), which make up most of the Academy's voting body.  The winner of the PGA award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture is usually the most indicative of what film will win Best Picture, with the last 8 PGA winners going on to win the Oscar (2013 was a tie between 12 YEARS A SLAVE and GRAVITY, with the former going on to win the Oscar; the last film to win the PGA award but not the Oscar was LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE in 2006, losing to THE DEPARTED).  The PGA awarded THE BIG SHORT for 2015, giving what was a dark horse candidate a sudden boost, but it still feels unlikely.  The SAG gave SPOTLIGHT the award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, their equivalent of a Best Picture award, but the SAG is a much less accurate predictor.  Finally, the DGA awarded THE REVENANT this year, but this film is a lot more divisive than the other nominees, and as the Academy votes for Best Picture on a preferential ballot (voters list the nominees in order of most deserving, with the winner having the highest average), its lower votes are likely to cancel out the more favorable ones.  SPOTLIGHT is the steadiest, safest choice.
Who Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD or SPOTLIGHT.  I would love to see it go to FURY ROAD, but I won't be complaining if it goes to SPOTLIGHT.

BEST DIRECTING 

• Lenny Abrahamson for ROOM
• Alejandro G. Inarritu for THE REVENANT
• Tom McCarthy for SPOTLIGHT
• Adam McKay for THE BIG SHORT
• George Miller for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

Who Will Win: George Miller.  I feel like it's Miller, with his film being far and away the most impressive directorial vision, and accompanied by a strong narrative as the return of a great filmmaker with the masterpiece of his career.  Plus, with 10 nominations, the Academy has already given this movie a chance, which is more than people had reason to expect when it came out to rave reviews last summer.  Unfortunately, the DGA award is an exceptional predictor of this category, and Alejandro Inarritu is this year's winner, which gives him a very strong chance, not to mention in the year of #OscarsSoWhite, a Mexican Best Director could be taken as an opportunity for reconciliation.  After winning for last year though, consecutive wins, especially for Best Director are exceptionally rare, having happened only twice (Joseph L. Mankiewicz in 1949 and 1950 for A LETTER TO MY THREE WIVES and ALL ABOUT EVE, and John Ford in 1940 and 1941 for THE GRAPES OF WRATH and HOW GREEN WAS MY VALLEY).  Furthermore, the fact that THE REVENANT simply isn't that good and Inarritu is, by all appearances, a pretentious ass, I cannot in good conscience believe it will go to him.
Who Should Win: Miller.  Returning after a three-decade hiatus to the series that started off his career, he made not only his masterpiece, but one of the greatest action movies of all time, and for all the hype about how difficult it was to make THE REVENANT, Miller's production was at least as plagued, filming in the sun-scorched Nambian deserts where extreme weather created extensive delays, and the elaborate, stunt-heavy shoot ran for an extensive 120 days.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: N/A

BEST ACTOR 

• Bryan Cranston as "Dalton Trumbo" in TRUMBO
• Matt Damon as "Mark Watney" in THE MARTIAN
• Leonardo DiCaprio as "Hugh Glass" in THE REVENANT
• Michael Fassbender as "Steve Jobs" in STEVE JOBS
• Eddie Redmayne as "Lili Elbe/Einar Wegener" in THE DANISH GIRL

Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio.  This is a "SCENT OF A WOMAN" case, referring to the 1992 film that finally won Al Pacino on Oscar after 6 previous nominations, despite common consensus holding that the win was for in recognition of all the times he should have won before but did not.  Leo's performance in THE REVENANT is good, but it certainly doesn't rank with his best, plus, he's miscast as the rugged mountain man (but that's not his fault).  After a few years of dumb jokes about how he still hasn't won an Oscar, Leo has a very showy role, and no one else stands out enough to deprive him of it.  Still, it should really have been for THE WOLF OF WALL STREET, or in a close second, THE AVIATOR.  Jeez, he's so good in THE WOLF OF WALL STREET.
Who Should Win: I don't actually have a preference here.  I haven't seen TRUMBO or THE DANISH GIRL, but I guess Michael Fassbender was pretty good in STEVE JOBS.  He's probably the best option, but even that doesn't stand out for me.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: N/A

BEST ACTRESS 

• Cate Blanchett as "Carol Aird" in CAROL
• Brie Larson as "Joy 'Ma' Newsome" in ROOM
• Jennifer Lawrence as "Joy Mangano" in JOY
• Charlotte Rampling as "Kate Mercer" in 45 YEARS
• Saoirse Ronan as "Ellis Lacey" in BROOKLYN

Who Will Win: Brie Larson for ROOM. A little while back, I would have bet on Saorise Ronan, based on her established clout with the awards community, and she could still pull an upset, but Larson is emerging as the favorite and been consistently good for some time in small, often overlooked films.
Who Should Win: No opinion.  I still haven't seen any of the nominated films in this category.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Charlize Theron for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

• Christian Bale as "Michael Burry" in THE BIG SHORT
• Tom Hardy as "John Fitzgerald" in THE REVENANT
• Mark Ruffalo as "Michael Rezendes" in SPOTLIGHT
• Mark Rylance as "Rudolf Abel" in BRIDGE OF SPIES
• Sylvester Stallone as "Rocky Balboa" in CREED

Who Will Win: Mark Rylance for BRIDGE OF SPIES.  That's my gut decision, but it wouldn't be too surprising if Sylvester Stallone finally gets his.
Who Should Win: Mark Rylance or Tom Hardy.  Rylance, Spielberg's latest discovery and soon to appear as the title role of his next film, THE BFG, was the wonderful standout of BRIDGE OF SPIES, making a Communist spy the most endearing and fully-fleshed character of a very American story.  Hardy, however, is the most worthwhile element of THE REVENANT, playing it big as a fun and crazy-nasty villain.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Steve Carell as Mark Baum in THE BIG SHORT.  Carell has proven himself to be a surprisingly deft dramatic actor in addition to his usual comedy roles, and he's the heart and soul of this film.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

• Jennifer Jason Leigh as "Daisy Domergue" in THE HATEFUL EIGHT
• Rooney Mara as "Therese Belivet" in CAROL
• Rachel McAdams as "Sacha Pfeiffer" in SPOTLIGHT
• Alicia Vikander as "Gerda Wegener" in THE DANISH GIRL
• Kate Winslet as "Joanna Hoffman" in STEVE JOBS

Who Will Win: Alicia Vikander.  She's had a very active year, with major roles in five different films, and an Oscar will make a fine culmination to her breakout.
Who Should Win: Of the three nominees that I've seen in THE HATEFUL EIGHT, SPOTLIGHT and STEVE JOBS, my favorite was Jennifer Jason Leigh in THE HATEFUL EIGHT.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: N/A

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

• BRIDGE OF SPIES, written by Matt Charman, and Joel & Ethan Coen 
• EX MACHINA, written by Alex Garland 
• INSIDE OUT, written by Josh Cooley, Ronnie del Carmen, Pete Docter & Meg LeFauve 
• SPOTLIGHT, written by Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer 
• STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON, written by Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus 

Who Will Win: Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer for SPOTLIGHT.
Who Should Win: SPOTLIGHT or INSIDE OUT.  SPOTLIGHT is flawlessly written, dealing with an important and complicated story in a way that is comprehensive but intimate, and deeply nuanced.  INSIDE OUT, which unfortunately never had a chance of winning, is an ingenious high concept, funny, poignant and wildly clever.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: N/A

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

• THE BIG SHORT, written by Adam McKay & Charles Randolph, adapted from The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine by Michael Lewis 
• BROOKLYN, written by Nick Hornby, adapted from Brooklyn by Colm Toibin
• CAROL, written by Phyllis Nagy, adapted from The Price of Salt by Patricia Highsmith
• THE MARTIAN, written by Drew Goddard, adapted from The Martian by Andy Weir 
• ROOM, written by Emma Donoghue, adapted from Room by Emma Donoghue 

Who Will Win: Adam McKay and Charles Randolph for THE BIG SHORT.  The Academy really wants to recognize this film, and if you notice anything about this movie, it's the writing.
Who Should Win: Of the nominees, I've only seen THE BIG SHORT and THE MARTIAN, but the case is strongest for THE BIG SHORT, nonetheless, which took a convoluted, facts and figures-heavy non-fiction book about an important event and made it palatable and funny, without ever losing the gravity of its subject matter.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Aaron Sorkin for STEVE JOBS.  While the film as a whole unfortunately fails to rise to the occasion of its brilliant script, Sorkin's three act play-style biopic is a fascinating and successful exercise in itself.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM 

• ANOMALISA, directed by Charlie Kaufman & Duke Johnson, produced by Rosa Tran
• BOY & THE WORLD, directed by Ale Abreu
• INSIDE OUT, directed by Pete Docter, produced by Jonas Rivera
• SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE, directed by Mark Burton & Richard Starzak
• WHEN MARNIE WAS THERE, directed by Hiromasa Yonebayashi, produced by Yoshiaki Nishimura

Who Will Win: INSIDE OUT.  The Academy likes to fill out the category with independent, usually foreign films where they can, but they've known since it came out that this award belonged to INSIDE OUT.
Who Should Win: INSIDE OUT.  In this category, I've actually only seen INSIDE OUT and SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE (the latter was actually a lot of fun), and I really want to see ANOMALISA but haven't yet had the opportunity.  However, INSIDE OUT was one of the best movies of 2015 and ranks alongside Pixar's best.  The last Pixar win in this category was for BRAVE, a movie which was far from the best of the 2012 nominees but afforded the Academy the opportunity to award a woman, Brenda Chapman (who actually has an excellent body of work, but was not well represented in BRAVE, which Pixar removed her from partway through production).
Who Should Have Been Nominated: N/A


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM 

• EMBRACE OF THE SERPENT, directed by Ciro Guerra (Spanish, Columbia) 
• MUSTANG, directed by Deniz Gamze Erguven (Turkish, France) 
• SON OF SAUL, directed by Laszlo Nemes (Hungarian, Hungary) 
• THEEB, directed by Naji Abu Nowar (Arabic, Jordan) 
• A WAR, directed by Tobia Lindholm (Danish, Denmark)

I haven't seen any of the nominees in this category, but SON OF SAUL has the strongest buzz about it, and the Holocaust subject matter never hurts when courting the Academy.  My bet is on SON OF SAUL to win.

BEST DOCUMENTARY - FEATURE 

• AMY, directed by Asif Kapadia, produced by James Gay-Rees
• CARTEL LAND, directed by Matthew Heineman, produced by Tom Yellin
• THE LOOK OF SILENCE, directed by Joshua Oppenheimer, produced by Signe Byrge Sorensen
• WHAT HAPPENED, MISS SIMONE?, directed by Liz Garbus, produced by Amy Hobby & Justin Wilkes
• WINTER ON FIRE: UKRAINE'S FIGHT FOR FREEDOM, directed by Evgeny Afineevsky, produced by Den Tolmor

Of the nominees, I've only seen CARTEL LAND, which was excellent.  However, the hype is strongest for the Amy Winehouse biography, AMY.  If not AMY, my next guess would be WHAT HAPPENED, MISS SIMONE?, since the Academy really loves feel-good showbiz docs.

BEST DOCUMENTARY - SHORT SUBJECT 

• BODY TEAM 12, directed by David Darg, produced by Bryn Mooser
• CHAU, BEHIND THE LINES, directed by Courtney Marsh, produced by Jerry Franck
• CLAUDE LANZMANN: SPECTRES OF THE SHOAH, directed & produced by Adam Benzine
• A GIRL IN THE RIVER: THE PRICE OF FORGIVENESS, directed by Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
• LAST DAY OF FREEDOM, directed & produced by Dee Hibbert-Jones & Nomi Talisman

Jeez, this category.  This category is only interesting for people nominated, their families and friends, and people who make documentaries.  Nobody else cares.  I'm going to guess CLAUDE LANZMANN: SPECTRES OF THE SHOAH, since it's about the Holocaust.


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM 

• AVE MARIA, directed by Basil Khalil, produced by Eric Dupont
• DAY ONE, directed by Henry Hughes
• EVERYTHING WILL BE OKAY, directed by Patrick Vollrath
• SHOK, directed by Jamie Donoughue
• STUTTERER, directed by Benjamin Cleary, produced by Serena Armitage

I haven't seen any of these.  I'm going to predict EVERYTHING WILL BE OKAY because I like the title.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

• BEAR STORY, directed by Gabriel Osorio Vargas, produced by Pato Escala Pierart
• PROLOGUE, directed by Richard Williams, produced by Imogen Sutton
• SANJAY'S SUPER TEAM, directed by Sanjay Patel, produced by Nicole Paradis Grindle
• WE CAN'T LIVE WITHOUT COSMOS, directed by Konstantin Bronzit 
• WORLD OF TOMORROW, directed and produced by Don Hertzfeldt

Again, this category is mostly of interest to the people nominated, their families and friends, and people in the animation business, and unless the nominee has played in front of a major feature film, most people haven't seen them.  I've seen SANJAY'S SUPER TEAM, which played ahead of Pixar's THE GOOD DINOSAUR, and it was good.  WORLD OF TOMORROW is available on Netflix, but I've been too lazy to get around to that just yet.  WORLD OF TOMORROW is the favorite though, so that'll be my guess.  PROLOGUE sounds particularly interesting, however, intended as the first six minutes of a planned feature film adaptation of the ancient Greek play Lysistrata (which Spike Lee also made a pretty darn good contemporary adaptation of in 2015 called CHI-RAQ) from revered animator Richard Williams, best known as animation director on WHO FRAMED ROGER RABBIT and for his long-term pet project, THE THIEF AND THE COBBLER.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

• BRIDGE OF SPIES, composed by Thomas Newman
• CAROL, composed by Carter Burwell
• THE HATEFUL EIGHT, composed by Ennio Morricone
• SICARIO, composed by Johann Johannsson
• STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS, composed by John Williams 

Who Will Win: Ennio Morricone for THE HATEFUL EIGHT.  Morricone is one of the all-time great film composers, best known for the iconically-themed THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY, as well as classic scores for ONCE UPON A TIME IN AMERICA and John Carpenter's THE THING, and although he was awarded an honorary Oscar in 2007, he's never won in the competitive category.  At 87, this could be their last chance.  However, another iconic film composer, John Williams for STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS, could slip in there.  He already has 5 wins though.
Who Should Win: I haven't seen CAROL, but being composed by Carter Burwell, it's probably a good score.  Honestly, although it's grown on me some, I thought Williams' score was too subtle for THE FORCE AWAKENS and wound up being a weak point for it, but the new original piece, "The Scavenger" or "Rey's Theme" is very good, and I wouldn't be disappointed if he won.  Morricone's score for THE HATEFUL EIGHT was very sparse, but the opening piece in particular sets a great mood.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Michael Giachinno for INSIDE OUT.  Another poignant, piano-driven score by Giacchino, who has previous won the award for another Pixar movie, UP, this was an egregious omission.  Newman's BRIDGE OF SPIES score is good, but you could scootch that on out of there and put this really great one in.  Seriously though, the INSIDE OUT score was gorgeous and simple, a perfectly complimentary element of the film.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

• "Earned It" by Belly, Stephan Moccio, Jason Daheala Quenneville & The Weeknd from FIFTY SHADES OF GREY
• "Manta Ray" by Antony Hergarty & J. Ralph from RACING EXTINCTION
• "Simple Song #3" by David Lang from YOUTH
• "Til It Happens to You" by Lady Gaga & Diane Warren from THE HUNTING GROUND
• "Writing's on the Wall" by Jimmy Napes & Sam Smith from SPECTRE

Who Will Win: I'm guessing "Til it Happens to You", since it brings with it the plentifully important subject matter of rape, but more importantly, because it's Lady Gaga.
Who Should Win: No idea.  The only one of the songs I know that I've heard is "Writing's on the Wall", and that wasn't bad, but I can take it or leave it.  This category lost its relevancy after the '90s with the end of the Disney Renaissance, and it wasn't much of a category for that decade anyway since it went to a Disney film for 7 out of the 10 years.  The '80s were also pretty good for it, when just about every other movie had an accompanying power ballad radio hit to play in the end credits.  They mostly just keep it around for the opportunity to have a few big musical numbers during the ceremony.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Wiz Khalifa's "See You Again" from FURIOUS 7 was a surprising omission, and I'd be on board with that one, but I'm not great at knowing the songs from non-animated movies.


BEST SOUND EDITING

• MAD MAX: FURY ROAD - Mark A. Mangini & David White
• THE MARTIAN - Oliver Tarney
• THE REVENANT - Martin Hernandez & Lon Bender
• SICARIO - Alan Robert Murray
• STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS - Matthew Wood & David Acord

Who Will Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD.
Who Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD.  Don't know the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing?  That's okay.  Neither do most of the voters.  Sound editing involves the sound elements, including dialogue recording, but more importantly, sound effects; you know, the fun stuff.  Sound editing is mostly for the blockbusters with inventive post-production uses of sound.  That makes FURY ROAD the most obvious candidate.  STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS, from the series that has practically defined this category, wouldn't be so bad either, though, especially with characters like BB-8.  But like I said, people don't know the difference, so they'll pick whichever movie has the coolest sounds.


BEST SOUND MIXING

• BRIDGE OF SPIES - Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom & Drew Kunin
• MAD MAX: FURY ROAD - Chris Jenkins, Greg Rudloff & Ben Osmo
• THE MARTIAN - Paul Massey, Mark Taylor & Mac Ruth
• THE REVENANT - Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Randy Thom & Chris Duesterdiek
• STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS - Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio & Stuart Wilson

Who Will Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD.
Who Should Win: Sound Mixing is about the overall balance of sounds, with the exception of the musical score.  Might as well go with MAD MAX: FURY ROAD again.


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• BRIDGE OF SPIES - Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Henrich & Adam Stockhausen
• THE DANISH GIRL - Michael Standish & Eve Stewart
• MAD MAX: FURY ROAD - Colin Gibson & Lisa Thompson
• THE MARTIAN - Celia Bobak & Arthur Max
• THE REVENANT - Jack Fisk & Hamish Purdy

Who Will Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD.  These technical awards are largely a war between FURY ROAD and THE REVENANT, and in recent years, the Academy has been bolder in their choice of Best Production Design, including winners like THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL, HUGO and ALICE IN WONDERLAND, which now favors FURY ROAD.
Who Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD.  The strongest sign of great production design is its transportative quality, how the look and feel of the story onscreen make up an authentic-feeling world, which is one of FURY ROAD's strongest factors, creating a beautiful and bold look that includes incredible vehicles, a stylized but raw, lived-in environment, and the awe-inspiring "Citadel" set.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• CAROL - Ed Lachman
• THE HATEFUL EIGHT - Robert Richardson
• MAD MAX: FURY ROAD - John Seale
• THE REVENANT - Emmanuel Lubezki
• SICARIO - Roger Deakins

Who Will Win: Emmanuel "Chivo" Lubezki for THE REVENANT.  In what would be his third consecutive win (winning last year for BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE) and the year before for GRAVITY), Lubezki is an easy choice for the sumptuous postcard natural imagery of THE REVENANT, and the much-hyped use of natural lighting.
Who Should Win: I realize it's a cliche now to say that Roger Deakins should win an Oscar, but of the nominees, his work for SICARIO really is the best.  Unlike Lubezki's work on THE REVENANT, Deakins' lens acts as an integral part of the storytelling in SICARIO, building on and contrasting with the murky events taking place with striking images of light and dark, intimate angles and sprawling landscapes.


BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

• THE 100-YEAR-OLD MAN  WHO CLIMBED OUT THE WINDOW AND DISAPPEARED - Love Larson & Eva von Bahr
• MAD MAX: FURY ROAD - Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega & Damian Martin
• THE REVENANT - Sian Grigg, Duncan Jarman & Robert Pandini

Who Will Win: THE REVENANT.  Historical hair and beards, extensive gore effects.  This one is really tight against MAD MAX: FURY ROAD, though.  THE 100-YEAR-OLD MAN... is just for the sake of a third nominee, kind of on par with other makeup nominees like BAD GRANDPA and NORBIT.
Who Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD, for makeup that goes well beyond impressive prosthetics with striking designs for a whole fictional society.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: N/A


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• CAROL - Sandy Powell
• CINDERELLA - Sandy Powell
• THE DANISH GIRL - Paco Delgado
• MAD MAX: FURY ROAD - Jenny Beavan
• THE REVENANT - Jacqueline West

Who Will Win: THE REVENANT.  I feel like the Academy is going to go for the historical costume drama with the furs, American Indians dress, etc.  If they're not going for the wildly elaborate, they like the historical.
Who Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD.  I don't know if FURY ROAD's costumes are "out there" enough to get the win like ALICE IN WONDERLAND or ANNA KARENINA, but it's again one of those production aspects that the movie just nails in the mix of detailed world-building.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: N/A


BEST FILM EDITING

• THE BIG SHORT - Hank Corwin
• MAD MAX: FURY ROAD - Margaret Sixel
• THE REVENANT - Stephen Mirrione
• SPOTLIGHT - Tom McArdle
• STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS - Maryann Brandon & Mary Jo Markey

Who Will Win: THE BIG SHORT.  Out of the trio of Best Picture front-runners, editing is most significant to THE BIG SHORT, a movie that structures itself cleverly to bounce between four different storylines and breaks the fourth wall to address the complex economic topics, all while maintaining a steady pace.  Although THE REVENANT is clearly an Academy darling, editing is clearly not its strong suit, slogging through a poorly structured 156 minutes with a third act that feels completely detached from everything else.  MAD MAX: FURY ROAD, however, could steal it from THE BIG SHORT, being well-recognized as a breakneck-paced action chase movie that pulls a few interesting editing tricks out along the way (check out the opening sequence).  STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS is just a weird inclusion here.  I don't have any real complaints about the editing of that movie, but it's odd that the Academy picked it up for this particular major category.  SPOTLIGHT, though more low-key, should not be dismissed, being exceptionally, and precisely put together.
Who Should Win: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD, easily the most interesting, entertaining and efficient editing job of the nominees.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• EX MACHINA - Mark Williams Ardington, Sara Bennett, Paul Norris & Andrew Whitehurst
• MAD MAX: FURY ROAD - Andrew Jackson, Dan Oliver, Andy Williams & Tom Wood
• THE MARTIAN - Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence, Richard Stammers & Steven Warner
• THE REVENANT - Richard McBride, Matt Shumway, Jason Smith & Cameron Waldbauer
• STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS - Chris Corbould, Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh & Neal Scanlan

Who Will Win: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS.  Most of the technical categories favor either THE REVENANT or MAD MAX: FURY ROAD, but STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS is both critically-acclaimed and one of the biggest hits of all time, and this is the best spot to honor it.  Furthermore, did you see BB-8?  They built that thing for real!
Who Should Win: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS.  Did you see BB-8?  They built that thing for real!  Yes, the rathtars weren't so good, but other than that...

Review: DEADPOOL

DEADPOOL
(ACTION-COMEDY/SCI-FI)
2.5 out of 4 stars
Directed by Tim Miller
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Morena Baccarin, Ed Skrein, T.J. Miller, Gina Carano, Brianna Hildebrand, Stefan Kapicic, Leslie Uggams, Jed Rees, Karan Soni
Rated R for strong violence and language throughout, sexual content and graphic nudity.
108 minutes
Verdict: The proudly nasty superhero blockbuster has its moments, but outside of those, it can be surprisingly dull.  It's like a mix between "Looney Tunes", "Happy Tree Friends" and that dumb ELEKTRA movie from 2005.
YOU MAY BE INTERESTED IN DEADPOOL IF YOU LIKED:
X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE  (2009)
KICK-ASS  (2010)
BLADE  (1998)
ELEKTRA  (2005)
SCOTT PILGRIM VS. THE WORLD  (2010)

It should be noted that the movie DEADPOOL, and its eponymous character from Marvel Comics (tied into the larger X-Men universe) comes with a fair bit of baggage, even before all the fresh new hype that comes with having the biggest box office opening for an R-rated movie ever.  Nicknamed the "Merc With a Mouth", the talkative, wisecracking antihero has built up a devoted fanbase since his first appearance 25 years ago in February 1991, thanks to his irreverent, anarchic and perpetually facetious personality that allows him to act as a foil to nearly everyone he encounters.  He regularly breaks the fourth wall, loves chimichangas, is absurdly violent and does everything a hero isn't supposed to all while making a big joke of it; basically, he's totally your average unfair stereotype of a basement-dwelling internet rebel's wet dream.  So he's kind of like the anime of the Marvel Universe: if he's on a person's t-shirt, that will factor into how close (or not close) you feel safe standing near that person at a loud, poorly-lit party.  Okay, needless to say, I'm not wild about the cult of Deadpool, so I was not looking forward to his big feature film, especially because they pretty much nailed the character in 2009's X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE.  Nah, just kidding.  X-MEN ORIGINS was not a good movie, but you have to admire the nerves of the people who made it to take fan-favorite character Deadpool, beloved for his wacky, talkative personality, and completely remove his whole damn mouth and make his trademark katana swords part of his hands.
Now, after years of campaigning to get the character his own film, the one the fans want, with the red suit, the fourth wall-breaking, the irreverent humor and the sacred R rating, Ryan Reynolds has reprised the role and given everything he has to it.  Whether or not fans will/have like/liked it is a foregone conclusion, and I've already admitted an aversion to character and his following, but that apprehension was starting to melt away after a week of hype.  It had decent reviews and has already made a big imprint on the future of the superhero movies, resurrecting the idea that an R-rated superhero movie can be successful, and what the hell, there was some pretty funny stuff in the trailers.  So I admit that by the time came that I finally watched it, I was a little bit excited.
It was a letdown from that point, but not entirely.  DEADPOOL has two different movies going on, and one is eye-rollingly, but amusingly, tasteless and anarchic, blending superheroes, Looney Tunes and Happy Tree Friends, and the other is pretty much just like every dull off-season superhero movie, such as ELEKTRA or GHOST RIDER.  Most of the former is in the first third or so of the film, where the movie opens on Wade Wilson/Deadpool, ready made with powers and elaborate costume (for a movie that makes so many meta wisecracks about superheroes and superhero movies, it's surprising that they don't address how he, like many movie superheroes, is suddenly a professional-grade designer/tailor/outfitter), in the middle of a recklessly destructive, violent pursuit on an expressway, going after someone named "Francis", for reasons we don't yet know.  This gets past the usual complaint about origin stories that take up a healthy chunk of the movie getting to the costumed action, but after a little while, we end up sitting through that healthy chunk of origin anyway, and for much of it, there's a steady stream of jokes, and through the law of averages, some of them hit, and it makes this all go down more smoothly.  There's no distinction between dishonorably discharged Special Forces operative turned enforcer-for-hire Wade Wilson and his alter ego; both are borderline insufferable assholes with a perpetual supply of wisecracks and an abundance of rudeness for everyone he interacts with, but he loves his prostitute girlfriend Vanessa (Morena Baccarin).  But terminal cancer interrupts his happy, hedonistic life, and with nothing left to lose, he accepts an offer for an experimental cure where he meets Ajax (Ed Skrein), aka Francis, who tortures him in order to trigger a response from his latent mutant genes, resulting in a highly accelerated and apparently unlimited healing ability that cures his cancer but permanently disfigures him.

Occasionally, a couple of Professor Xavier's X-Men show up, the steel-skinned Russian muscle-dude Colossus (voiced by Stefan Kapicic; motion-capture performance by Andre Tricoteux and Greg LaSalle) and sullen teen trainee Negasonic Teenage Warhead (Brianna Hildebrand), who Deadpool wryly notes were the only X-Men 20th Century Fox would give them.  Colossus, who also has a pretty decent following, has made fleeting appearances in previous X-Men movies as played by Daniel Cudmore, who declined to appear in this film, but now when he's finally given a substantial role, he appears only as a CGI character, as cartoonish in his personality as his appearance.  Negasonic Teenage Warhead, meanwhile, is an entirely uninspired, run-of-the-mill angsty teenager with a "kewl" name.  While Deadpool himself is comedic, there's still the usual "comic relief" characters who provide two of the movie's big highlights; T.J. Miller as Weasel, Wade's best bud and bartender at the mercenary bar, and Leslie Uggams as Wade's elderly blind woman roommate, Blind Al.  Frankly, I like to see a movie about Weasel, running the merc bar, making deadpan wisecracks, and maybe a backstory to explain why this bar for rage-fueled murderers-for-hire is so well stocked on Mike's Hard Lemonade.  Blind Al could have a TV show.  I'd watch it.
As Deadpool, Reynolds is mostly pretty fun, and ironically, while the character is more often a foil for other characters, his best moments come when he's been impeded himself and his resulting puerile outbursts.  He's pretty obnoxious too, though, and you don't necessarily want to see him win (the character originated as a villain in the comics, and may work better that way).  When he leans into the character's cutesiness, it's cringe-worthy, but even if these moments are too frequent, they're also usually brief.  In the costume, Deadpool is like a live-action cartoon trickster character like Bugs Bunny, but using the same persona as Wade, he's far, far less endearing.  I had concerns going in about how a movie with the level of snark and smug smartassery suggested in the advertising would keep from becoming unbearable over 100 minutes, but the movie doesn't attempt to sustain that tone throughout.  Ironically, it was the moments in which they tried to play it a little more straight or sincere that it became that total drudge I was dreading.  In contrast to the over-the-top farce that the beginning of the movie establishes, when the movie tries to treat Wade's cancer diagnosis or relationship to Venessa with any seriousness, it immediately rings false.  The tonal shifts are wild, and once they get to setting up the serious stakes of the third act, it just feels boring.
For a new twist in the superhero genre, DEADPOOL doesn't offer much new; in fact, much of what it does feels old, like the B-list superhero movies of ten years ago.  It's big thing is that it's rated R, a promise it delivers handsomely on, occasionally to an unnecessary level, with gruesome brain matter and guts spraying from Deadpool's victims onto the street, and gross-out sex jokes.  On a side note, it's unclear why the X-Men are putting all their efforts into trying to recruit Deadpool when, if this were an X-Men movie, I'm pretty sure they'd be disabling and apprehending him.  He's doing some pretty bad stuff.  Not just like 'funny bad', but rampant selfish destruction and murder (he admits as much).  It's a little funny, but it definitely makes you question the X-Men's reliability as good-doers.  All in all, it's fine, with the fun stuff balancing the boring stuff, but this is mostly fan service.

Review: THE WITCH

THE WITCH 
(HORROR/MYSTERY-THRILLER) 

3 out of 4 stars 
Directed by Robert Eggers
Starring: Anya Taylor-Joy, Ralph Ineson, Kate Dickie, Harvey Scrimshaw, Ellie Grainger, Lucas Dawson, Bathsheba Garnett, Sarah Stephens, Julian Richings
Rated R for disturbing violent content and graphic nudity.
93 minutes
Verdict: Thoughtful and low-key, THE WITCH is a smart, intimate, and deeply disturbing horror movie that makes you wait for the good stuff, but leaves you with a lot.
YOU MAY BE INTERESTED IN THE WITCH IF YOU LIKED:
THE CONJURING  (2013)
BLACK DEATH  (2010)
IT FOLLOWS  (2014)
THE CRUCIBLE  (1996)
SLEEPY HOLLOW  (1999)

I've long held a morbid fascination with the history of "witches" and witch-hunting, especially in the context of 17th-century New England and the Puritans.  It's a chilling example of social phenomenons that we still occasionally see examples of today, but amplified to an extreme where lives are destroyed, and all with the pageantry of Biblical superstition at the edge of the wilderness.  Robert Eggers' 2015 Sundance hit THE WITCH, finally arriving in theaters nationwide this weekend, is accompanied by the subtitle, A New England Folktale.  Although it is an original story and not based on any one specific folktale, Eggers' script cobbles together accounts and dialogues from 17-century journals and transcripts, as noted in the end titles, and acts as a folktale itself, fully embracing the actuality of witches as part of the events from early on.  THE WITCH strives to take perceptions of witches back to the frightening reality that they were thought to be in that time and place.  The non-historical, fantastical elements amplify the sense of reality in the story by showing it as the Puritans themselves would have seen it, complimenting the well-researched detail in the portrayal of the Puritan culture and mindset.

As the film opens, a family led by the father, William (Ralph Ineson), with mother Katherine (Kate Dickie), their eldest teenage daughter Thomasin (Anya Taylor-Joy), a preteen son, Caleb (Harvey Scrimshaw), and young twin children Mercy (Ellie Grainger) and Jonas (Lucas Dawson), are cast out of their Puritan community in 17th-century New England for an unspecified religious conflict with the plantation's authorities.  Isolated at the edge of the ominous woodlands, they start a new life and welcome a new addition, Samuel, but one day as Thomasin is watching the infant, he mysteriously vanishes, taken by an unseen abductor.  Then, the crops on which they rely begin to fail, leaving them with no food for the winter.
The movie unfolds quietly, but not necessarily slowly, combining history and folklore in a story of a family torn apart from within and from without.  It's beautifully crafted, with intimate drama at the heart of its horror.  As part of their particular religious understanding, William, Katherine, Thomasin and Caleb live under the constant, looming threat of eternal damnation, with their only hope of escaping such a fate lying in fervent prayer, while their "corrupt" human natures in perpetual opposition.  The loss of an infant is compounded with the fear that the child's soul has not been saved, and every act of misfortune is accompanied by a connotation of God's disapproval.  And yet, as interesting as the religious and social commentaries are, the film's dour, low-key style sometimes keeps it at a distance, or at least prevents it from sinking in quite as deeply as it could.  When it all comes to a point in its final moments however, THE WITCH packs an impressive punch and suddenly exploded into being as everything I could have hoped for, dark and terrifying and even awe-inspiring in its portrayal of Biblical evil.  It isn't always the most entertaining fare, but it leaves you with a lot.

Images via A24