86th Academy Awards: My Picks & Predicitons

The Academy Awards, held by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, is the oldest and arguably most prestigious entertainment award ceremony running today.  First presented in 1929 as a way to recognize and lend legitimacy to the filmmaking industry, they are indeed awards voted on and given out by the same people receiving them much of the time.  Anyone with any interest in cinema can point out the ridiculous nature of the self-serious Oscars, as the Academy Awards are commonly known, as anyone else making a big point about giving themselves an "award" would be written off as crazy, but that's how it is.  Unfortunately, supposed audience awards like the People's Choice Awards haven't come up with a better option, because the "people" who take the time to vote online for those awards are screen-addicted homebodies and fanboys/fangirls who have the nerve to nominate GROWN UPS 2 for "Best Comedic Movie" and gave "Favorite Movie" to THE TWILIGHT SAGA: ECLIPSE over TOY STORY 3 and INCEPTION, so such widely-scoped audience awards are just too unreliable.  The Academy Awards on the other hand, while only picking the most enduring future classic for Best Picture somewhat less than half the time, almost always awards a movie that's at least pretty good.  For instance, a real nasty blunder back in 2010, when the vastly superior THE SOCIAL NETWORK was passed over for the very standard THE KING'S SPEECH, the latter was still a decent movie.  Even the C.B. DeMille's 1952 circus epic, THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH, sometimes maligned as the worst Best Picture winner (notably winning over much-preferred classics like HIGH NOON and SINGIN' IN THE RAIN), isn't as bad as its reputation.  Then again, some of the earlier winners, like CIMARRON in 1931 and the first Best Picture, WINGS in 1928, just aren't that good at all.  CRASH, in 2005, wasn't anything special either.
Worse, movies are just impossible to pick out the "bests"; taste in movies is highly subjective, and depending on where you're at in life, a person is liable to prefer certain movies at some times and different ones at others.  But it's not like there can be a real championship/Super Bowl in movies, so the next best thing is an Academy Awards ceremony.  What you get then is a voting group's opinions and the politics that come with them, and those who love movies try to guess what this group's opinion will favor and then commending the group if they agree with the other movie-lovers and bemoaning the choices they disdain.  It doesn't matter a whole lot, but it's a diversion.  Here's my bets for the 86th Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE 
The Nominees:

• AMERICAN HUSTLE
• CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
• DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
• GRAVITY
• HER
• NEBRASKA 
• PHILOMENA
• 12 YEARS A SLAVE
• THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Will Win: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
This is an abnormally close year (for the first time ever, the Producers Guild of America Awards voted a tie, indicating a neck-and-neck Oscar race), and when 12 YEARS A SLAVE first started its limited and then wide releases in late October and early November, I was adamant with myself that this was going to be the winner.  It has the clout and the importance, and it doesn't hurt that it won the top People's Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival, that birthplace of so much Oscar buzz.  It's not too mainstream, but it's gotten enough attention to stand above most independent films.  It's air of importance is its most irrefutable strength; it'd be really hard to deny this surprisingly rare and honest depiction of African slavery in America, which has received surprisingly little attention (at least in a negative light) in Hollywood films.  
Should Win:  GRAVITY
GRAVITY is another sort of rare film, being a big-budget original story from a very talented director and connecting with both critics and audiences, while also pushing the boundaries of filmmaking technologies and aesthetics and packing a surprising emotional punch.  Like LIFE OF PI last year, it takes a story that can be fairly easily described, sounds impossible to sustain a feature film and not only succeeds on all levels, but totally blows your mind.  Its effect is potentially lessened by viewing on formats smaller than an IMAX theater screen, but that hardly makes LAWRENCE OF ARABIA less of a classic, now does it?  GRAVITY is the best film of the year, and most of the Academy probably realizes that, but 12 YEARS A SLAVE is the "worthiest" film of the year, and that trumps the best.

BEST DIRECTOR 
The Nominees:  

• ALFONSO CUARON for GRAVITY
• STEVE McQUEEN for 12 YEARS A SLAVE
• ALEXANDER PAYNE for NEBRASKA
• DAVID O. RUSSELL for AMERICAN HUSTLE
• MARTIN SCORCESE for THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron 

Alfonso Cuaron directing on the set of GRAVITY.

With a race as close as this, the Academy is likely to do the next best thing to awarding two Best Pictures, and that is splitting the Best Picture and Best Director between two nominees.  Typically, the two awards go hand in hand, considering that it's hard to justify a film as being the best of the year without having had the best direction behind it, but it's not unheard of, or even that rare.  It happened just last year in fact, but in even more unusual circumstances where the Best Picture hadn't even been nominated for Best Director.  They could award it to 12 YEARS A SLAVE's Steve McQueen and congratulate themselves for awarding the first Best Director to a director of African descent, but pre-Oscars awards trends have strongly suggested that Cuaron will be favored for a more technically and aesthetically astute film.  He'd be the first Latino director to win the award.
Should Win:  Alfonso Cuaron
GRAVITY is the better film, if not necessarily the most "important", and Cuaron deserves it for having crafted a big-budget antithesis to the brainless blockbuster, using exceptional technical prowess with all the story's humanity intact.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE 
The Nominees:

• CHRISTIAN BALE as Irving Rosenfeld in AMERICAN HUSTLE
• BRUCE DERN as Woody Grant in NEBRASKA
• LEONARDO DiCAPRIO as Jordan Belfort in THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
• CHIWETEL EJIOFOR as Solomon Northup in 12 YEARS A SLAVE
• MATTHEW McCONAUGHEY as Ron Woodroof in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

Matthew McConaughey in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB.

Will Win:  Matthew McConaughey
Matthew McConaughey is in the midst of one of the most remarkable actor comebacks of recent years, a "McConaissance", as it's been popularly dubbed, having been widely associated with low-rent romantic comedies like HOW TO LOSE A GUY IN 10 DAYS (2003; so awful) and the Indiana Jones-wannabe mega-flop SAHARA (2005; so boring) only a few years ago, then suddenly returning as an acting talent with a vengeance in risky independent roles like the seriously sexually disturbed hitman in KILLER JOE, the goofy gung-ho attorney Danny Buck in BERNIE, the haunted fugitive "Mud" in MUD and a strip club proprietor in MAGIC MIKE.  Although it isn't his best role of the past few years (Killer Joe is my pick), it seems clear that DALLAS BUYERS CLUB is his RETURN OF THE KING, the award appointed to a single film in recognition of a bunch of others too.  He isn't bad in it either.  Everyone's just pretty well caught up in the excitement of such a fortuitous career turn.
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Chiwetel Ejiofor is a recognizable actor whose name has only just became recognizable.  He's cropped up in minor roles in many high-profile films previously, ranging from charming to menacing and otherworldly, with credits in LOVE ACTUALLY, SERENITY, 2012, CHILDREN OF MEN, KINKY BOOTS and SALT, but 12 YEARS A SLAVE is the first true showcase for his considerable dramatic talents.  In a difficult role balancing tragedy, anger, resilience, terror and desperation without venturing into exploitation, he takes on a considerable responsibility in 12 YEARS A SLAVE and fulfills it admirably and movingly.  Unfortunately, his name may just be a bit too difficult to announce/pronounce.
 
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE 
The Nominees:

• AMY ADAMS as Sidney Prosser in AMERICAN HUSTLE
• CATE BLANCHETT as Jeanette "Jasmine" Francis in BLUE JASMINE
• SANDRA BULLOCK as Dr. Ryan Stone in GRAVITY
• JUDI DENCH as Philomena Lee in PHILOMENA
• MERYL STREEP as Violet Weston in AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY

Will Win:  Cate Blanchett
Blanchett, in the role of formerly-wealthy Manhattan socialite Jeanette "Jasmine" Francis who faces a downward spiral into poverty and madness after her husband committed suicide in the midst of scandal and exposed fraud practices, has had this award in the bag ever since BLUE JASMINE premiered in late Summer 2013.  Her astounding, fully-invested performance has been an awards juggernaut, sweeping acting awards left and right without losing steam.  This is one of the surest bets of these awards.
Should Win:  Cate Blanchett
Cate Blanchett is one of the best actresses working today, having already won the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress as Katherine Hepburn in 2004's THE AVIATOR, with another two previous nominations for Best Actress and two others for Best Supporting Actress.  In BLUE JASMINE, she's given the opportunity for a really flashy showcase that displays a wide range of ability that she fills in to its entirety.  Given that Blanchett is such a sure thing, I feel compelled to mention the equally deserving Sandra Bullock as Dr. Ryan Stone in GRAVITY, who gives the most incredible performance of her career thus far, done on studio sets with minimal visual detail to react to no less.  Bullock won the award for 2009's THE BLIND SIDE, in which she was much less impressive, so when she's referred to as an Oscar-winning actress, despite knowing what movie it was actually for, I'll think of GRAVITY.

Cate Blanchett in BLUE JASMINE.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Nominees:

• BARKHAD ABDI as Abduwali Muse in CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
• BRADLEY COOPER as Agent Richard "Richie" DiMaso in AMERICAN HUSTLE
• MICHAEL FASSBENDER as Edwin Epps in 12 YEARS A SLAVE
• JONAH HILL as Donnie Azoff in THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
• JARED LETO as Rayon in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

Will Win:  Jared Leto
In his role as a transgender woman with HIV, Jared Leto has received widespread acclaim and swept all the previous awards.
Should Win:  Jared Leto
Normally, I might dismiss a transgender performance as overrated awards-bait, but Jared Leto as Rayon in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB narrowly edges out the competition with a totally immersive, funny and heartbreaking performance, and the best part of the film as a whole.  That said, the competition is also very deserving, with a gripping breakout role for Barkhad Abdi in CAPTAIN PHILLIPS as the despearte Somali pirate captain Muse and Michael Fassbender as a sadistic and complex slave master in 12 YEARS A SLAVE, in a similar vein to the S.S. Lt. Amon Goeth in SCHINDLER'S LIST.  Jonah Hill, as stockbroker Jordan Belfort's number two in THE WOLF OF WALL STREET gives a much more Oscar-worthy performance this time around than for his first nomination in MONEYBALL, but his character is a bit too creepy too win.  They don't make that kind of nomination as a serious contender anyway.

Jared Leto in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Nominees:

• SALLY HAWKINS as Ginger in BLUE JASMINE
• JENNIFER LAWRENCE as Rosalyn Rosenfeld in AMERICAN HUSTLE
• LUPITA NYONG'O as Patsey in 12 YEARS A SLAVE
• JULIA ROBERTS as Barbara Weston-Fordham in AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
• JUNE SQUIBB as Kate Grant in NEBRASKA

Will Win:  Lupita Nyong'o
When I first started writing this up a few weeks ago, I would have said Jennifer Lawrence, who would be deserving of an Oscar for Best Celebrity Personality if there were such a category, but she'd win every damn year.  The trend has since taken a more reasonable direction though, because as much as I love Lawrence and her character in AMERICAN HUSTLE, but Lupita Nyong'o, a Mexican-born Kenyan actress in her breakout role, is more deserving this year.  Ms. Lawrence will undoubtedly nab plenty more Oscars in the future.
Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o

Lupita Nyong'o in 12 YEARS A SLAVE.

Lupita Nyong'o is a knockout in her feature film debut as the tragic Patsey from 12 YEARS A SLAVE, a difficult and harrowing role which she embodies with sympathy and realism, providing the biggest punch of an emotionally weighty film.

BEST WRITING- ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 
The Nominees:

• AMERICAN HUSTLE  -Written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
• BLUE JASMINE  -Written by Woody Allen
• DALLAS BUYERS CLUB  -Written by Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack 
• HER  -Written by Spike Jonze
• NEBRASKA  -Written by Bob Nelson

Will Win:  HER
Best Original Screenplay is usually where the Academy honors the quirky critics' favorites that otherwise might be shut out, and coincidentally, Spike Jonze's HER is most deserving.  
Should Win: HER
HER is one of the best scripts of the year by far, with touching intimacy that interlocks exquisitely with an astounding ambition to explore and at least partially explain the vastness of the inner workings and potentials of human love in many forms and the points and purposes of technology and its companionship with human society. 


BEST WRITING- ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 
The Nominees:

• BEFORE MIDNIGHT  -Written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke; Based on characters created by Richard Linklater and Kim Krizan for BEFORE SUNRISE (1995)
• CAPTAIN PHILLIPS  -Written by Billy Ray; Adapted from A Captain's Duty: Somali Pirates, Navy SEALs, and Dangerous Days at Sea by Richard Phillips and Stephan Talty
• PHILOMENA  -Written by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope; Adapted from The Lost Child of Philomena Lee by Martin Sixsmith
• 12 YEARS A SLAVE  -Written by John Ridley; Adapted from 12 Years a Slave by Solomon Northup
• THE WOLF OF WALL STREET  -Written by Terence Winter; Adapted from The Wolf of Wall Street by Jordan Belfort

Will Win:  12 YEARS A SLAVE
Yes, this means that the guy who wrote the comically bad RED TAILS (with lines like, "Die, foolish African!") will win an Oscar, but Akiva Goldsman, writer of the franchise-killing BATMAN & ROBIN, won for A BEAUTIFUL MIND (one of two good films he's written, the other being CINDERELLA MAN; everything else he's done is just dreadful), so there's been bigger precedents of such a sort.  John Ridley's script for 12 YEARS A SLAVE is good, but mostly it will win to comply with a Best Picture win, which will already be without a Best Director win, most likely. 
Should Win:  BEFORE MIDNIGHT
I love the "Before trilogy", and I'd root for BEFORE MIDNIGHT in any category it could get, and Best Adapted Screenplay turned out to be the only one.  Then again, the writing is where Jesse and Celine story really gets most of its strength, and like its predecessors, BEFORE MIDNIGHT is a wildly moving, insightful, funny, intimate and ambitious work of screenwriting.  I should also give kudos to THE WOLF OF WALL STREET's script, which has been behind one of its major points of controversy, by portraying the story from a reprehensible character's point-of-view, but it does it so well and with great boldness.
  
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees:

• THE CROODS
• DESPICABLE ME 2
• ERNEST & CELESTINE
• FROZEN
• THE WIND RISES

Will Win: FROZEN
DESPICABLE ME 2 exceeded expectations last summer by becoming the second-highest-grossing film of the summer, but few expected FROZEN to be the box office juggernaut and cultural touchstone it turned out to be.  It's not quite on the same level as BEAUTY AND THE BEAST or THE LION KING, which it's been compared to, but it's nonetheless a return to greatness for Disney Animation that has been sweeping awards for animation all around.  THE WIND RISES could possibly surprise us, being animation legend Hayoa Miyazaki's swan song, but the Academy seems to nominate swan songs automatically, but it'd have to be really special to get the win.
Should Win: FROZEN
FROZEN isn't perfect, and it isn't even quite as good as a lot critics have been saying, but I love it anyway, and it's long past time for Disney, the most iconic animation studio of all time, to win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature.  Do you realize that they've never won?  FROZEN is their 7th nomination since the category was started in 2001 (SHREK won), but Disney got a bit lackluster during the 2000s, and every time they had anything good, Pixar was better still.  Now Pixar has lost steam, and Disney is gaining.  It's time for Disney to win.

Still from Disney's FROZEN.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Nominees:

• THE BROKEN CIRCLE BREAKDOWN  -Language: Dutch / Country: Belgium
• THE GREAT BEAUTY  -Language: Italian / Country: Italy
• THE HUNT  -Language: Danish / Country: Denmark
• THE MISSING PICTURE  -Language: French / Country: Cambodia
• OMAR  -Language: Arabic / Country: Palestine

 The only nominee for Best Foreign Film that I've seen was THE HUNT, which was an extraordinary, engrossing and downright amazing film (available to stream on Netflix) which I wholeheartedly recommend, but I can't compare to the other nominees.  THE GREAT BEAUTY is the apparent favorite.

 BEST DOCUMENTARY- FEATURE
The Nominees:

• THE ACT OF KILLING
• CUTIE AND THE BOXER
• DIRTY WARS
• THE SQUARE
• 20 FEET FROM STARDOM

CUTIE AND THE BOXER is also on Netflix, but I've only seen THE ACT OF KILLING, which was certainly notable, but I have no way of comparing it to the others.  Anyway, THE ACT OF KILLING, in which the filmmaker gets men who performed massacres during the 1965-1966 communist purge in Indonesia to reenact the killings for a film and in the process obtains confessions and eventual remorse, is favored to win.

BEST DOCUMENTARY- SHORT SUBJECT
The Nominees:

• CAVEDIGGER
• FACING FEAR
• KARAMA HAS NO WALLS
• THE LADY IN NUMBER 6: MUSIC SAVED MY LIFE
• PRISON TERMINAL: THE LAST DAYS OF PRIVATE JACK HALL

Haven't seen a single one, but nobody cares that much about this category anyway, no offense.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The Nominees:

• AQUEL NO ERA YO (THAT WASN'T ME)
• AVANT QUE DE TOUT PERDRE (JUST BEFORE LOSING EVERYTHING)
• HELIUM
• PITAAKO MUN KAIKKI HOITAA? (DO I HAVE TO TAKE CARE OF EVERYTHING?)
• THE VOORMAN PROBLEM

Have not seen a single one.  Heard good things about THE VOORMAN PROBLEM though.  It's the only one in English.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The Nominees:

• FERAL
• GET A HORSE!
• MR. HUBLOT
• POSSESSIONS
• ROOM ON THE BROOM

Apparently people are fairly certain that the new Mickey Mouse cartoon, GET A HORSE!, which played before FROZEN, will win, and it's definitely the most widely seen in this category (it's the only one I've seen).  I didn't love it, but like I said, I haven't seen the other ones, so I don't know.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 
The Nominees:

• THE BOOK THIEF -Score Composed by John Williams
• GRAVITY -Score Composed by Steven Price
• HER -Score Composed by William Butler and Owen Pallett (Arcade Fire)
• PHILOMENA -Score Composed by Alexandre Desplat
• SAVING MR. BANKS -Score Composed by Thomas Newman 

Will Win: GRAVITY
GRAVITY gets a long way on its score, with minimal sound effects even within all its action scenes, where the score fills in with great but non-intrusive impact.  
Should Win: GRAVITY
GRAVITY's score is the most remarkable and effective; incidentally, early awards season contender SAVING MR. BANKS received its sole Academy Award nomination in this category, which is not only unfortunate because it was a severely misunderstood, egregiously underrated movie, but also because, while I think it deserved nominations in several other categories, I don't think it deserved this one.  Its score was unimpressive and occasionally obtrusive, with its only great moments being when it was adapting the excellent score written by the Sherman Brothers for MARY POPPINS.

Still from the "Let It Go" musical segment in Disney's FROZEN.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 
The Nominees:

• "ALONE YET NOT ALONE" from ALONE YET NOT ALONE
• "HAPPY" from DESPICABLE ME 2
• "LET IT GO" from FROZEN
• "THE MOON SONG" from HER
• "ORDINARY LOVE" from MANDELA: LONG WALK TO FREEDOM

Will Win: "Let It Go" from FROZEN
"Let It Go" emerged early on as the frontrunner when the film first premiered back in November, and while Pharell Williams' "Happy" from DESPICABLE ME 2 has been suddenly rising through the charts and U2's "Ordinary Love" from MANDELA: LONG WALK TO FREEDOM has been boosted by the band's clout and the helping hand of Harvey Weinstein (who must be bored out of his wits without a serious contender to push at the Oscars this year), "Let It Go" (sung by Broadway star Idina Menzel) has been the highlight of a soundtrack that topped Billboard's albums chart for five weeks.  On a side note, soon after the nominations were first announced, one in this category was revoked (not unprecedented but highly unusual), that being "Alone Yet Not Alone", a standard "inspirational" piece from an independent Christian cinema movie of the same name, with dubious racial and historical opinions.
Should Win: "Let It Go" from FROZEN
"Let It Go" is the greatest new Disney song since THE LION KING twenty years ago and a rousing anthem of liberation and self-tolerance that has even fueled some speculation about relevant gay "coming out" themes, which, while not necessarily irrefutable, are nonetheless readable and commendable.  I don't even remember "The Moon Song"; "Happy" is a peppy but bland bit of background car radio music (you can hear it, and maybe don't even switch stations, but you don't really react to it); and "Ordinary Love" is a grating, slogging and utterly unremarkable soft rock song that's easily forgotten.  "Let It Go" is the song that will still torment anyone nearby a karaoke machine in years to come, but still will remain unhateable in its pure form. 


BEST SOUND EDITING 
The Nominees:

• ALL IS LOST
• CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
• GRAVITY
• THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
• LONE SURVIVOR

Will Win:  GRAVITY
There are still tons of people, Academy voters included, who don't know the difference between "sound editing" and "sound mixing", so these "technical" awards usually go to the best sci-fi/fantasy films, and GRAVITY has a lock on all technical awards this year.
Should Win:  CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Sound editing can be explained as gathering the "ingredients" of a movie's sound recordings and effects; they pick out the sounds to be used and they record the sound on set.  GRAVITY, being a much more post-production-heavy effort, probably didn't necessitate such creative on-set recording, while CAPTAIN PHILLIPS is a very here-and-now film that nonetheless relies heavily on sound, so that would be my pick.
 
BEST SOUND MIXING 
The Nominees:

• CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
• GRAVITY
• THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
• INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
• LONE SURVIVOR

Will Win:  GRAVITY
Again, GRAVITY has a lock on all technical Oscars.  The Academy tends to cluster these together.
Should Win:  GRAVITY
Sound mixing is the finished sound as a whole, the mixed-together result of the materials provided by the sound editor.  Sound mixing is where you get a lot of the really creative sounds, if not by the most creative methods necessarily, such as the cool modifications to Benedict Cumberbatch's voice recordings as Smaug in THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG.  GRAVITY uses sound in a really cool way though, sparingly and logically.
 
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 
The Nominees:

• AMERICAN HUSTLE
• GRAVITY
• THE GREAT GATSBY
• HER
• 12 YEARS A SLAVE

Will Win:  THE GREAT GATSBY
Baz Luhrmann's films are most notable for their production designs, flashy, visually and audibly loud spectacles liable to cause headaches in the right conditions, and the Academy is always willing to look back much earlier in the year for this category than in others, so GATSBY's lavish baroque vision of Roaring Twenties excess has the odds in its favor.
Should Win:  HER
HER has a remarkable production design that envisions a very reasonable and very smart future world that shows best in the little things, but the Academy doesn't have a good reputation for recognizing the merits of subtlety.

Tobey Maguire, Leonardo DiCaprio, Carey Mulligan and Joel Edgerton in THE GREAT GASBTY.

 
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 
The Nominees:

• THE GRANDMASTER
• GRAVITY
• INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
• NEBRASKA
• PRISONERS

Will Win:  GRAVITY
When people think of "cinematography", they think of the visual experience of a film, and there is no more visually stunning film of 2013 than GRAVITY, which created an unshakable feeling of an actual outer space environment.
Should Win:  GRAVITY
There are some who would dismiss GRAVITY's cinematography because so much of the film's visual style comes through in the post-filming, post-cinematography, post-production stage, but GRAVITY actually makes a great deal of innovations in cinematography, making intense use of robotic camera arms and other new methods to create the environmental effects and immediacy of the scenes on the film's live actors.
 
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 
The Nominees:

• DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
• JACKASS PRESENTS: BAD GRANDPA
• THE LONE RANGER

Will Win:  DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
Best Makeup and Hairstyling is an award where some fairly silly nominees show up, films of ill-repute like NORBIT and CLICK, and you get the chance to refer to the 2010 remake, THE WOLFMAN, as an Academy Award-winner.  I didn't hate THE LONE RANGER as much as most people seemed to, but I don't think Tonto is exactly "Oscar-worthy", and JACKASS PRESENTS; BAD GRANDPA is just the obligatory old age makeup nominee.  DALLAS BUYERS CLUB is a respectable period drama, with a transgender character to boot (always noteworthy in the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category), so it takes this one fairly easily.

 
BEST COSTUME DESIGN 
The Nominees:

• AMERICAN HUSTLE
• THE GRANDMASTER
• THE GREAT GATSBY
• THE INVISIBLE WOMAN
• 12 YEARS A SLAVE

Will Win:  GREAT GATSBY
The costumes in Baz Luhrmann's films can run from absolutely garish and loud for the sake of being loud, to spectacularly flashy, with GATSBY running toward the latter.  Set in the Roaring Twenties, with every sparkly, dangling excess on display, GATSBY will attract Academy votes like something that like shiny objects to shiny objects.
Should Win:  AMERICAN HUSTLE
I just love the character looks for AMERICAN HUSTLE, especially Irving, with his suits, dark glasses and ridiculous comb-over (which I guess is Makeup and Hairstyling, but it didn;t get that nomination), plus Amy Adams' plunging necklines that defy all the laws of physics to avoid exposing an areola. 
 
BEST FILM EDITING 
The Nominees:

• AMERICAN HUSTLE
• CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
• DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
• GRAVITY
• 12 YEARS A SLAVE

Will Win:  GRAVITY
Piling onto GRAVITY's multiple wins will probably be Best Film Editing, which will give the Academy another opportunity to put some gold Alfonso Cuaron's way (he's credited as a co-editor).  There is a minor possibility that some of the movie's subtleties in the editing area go over the Academy's head though and AMERICAN HUSTLE gets it as a consolation prize.
Should Win:  GRAVITY
GRAVITY has a very deliberate and thoughtful editing style that becomes more visible on repeat viewings, with extensively prolonged singular shots and a neat cyclical, metaphorical story structure.
 

Sandra Bullock and George Clooney in GRAVITY.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 
The Nominees:

• GRAVITY
• THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
• IRON MAN 3
• THE LONE RANGER
• STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS

Will Win: GRAVITY
GRAVITY has this one so far in the bag it's ridiculous.  It's the only surer bet this year than Cate Blanchett for Best Actress.  This is like STAR WARS, THE MATRIX, THE LORD OF THE RINGS and AVATAR.  It's a landmark, and there just no room for doubt.  If another film won, everyone would laugh, because it would so clearly be a widespread joke between voters.
Should Win: GRAVITY